Before planning to oust Boehner, Conservatives should look to Texas

There is a movement afoot to jettison John Boehner from the Speakership. At first blush, it seems incredibly attainable; it's that second blush that gives one a double-take. The idea, courtesy of Ned Ryun at Red State is quite simple in theory. In order to be re-elected as Speaker, Boehner needs to receive 218 votes. If 16 Republicans abstain, he only gets 217 and the House would be Speaker-less.

As Doug Ross points out, it may not be that simple:

My only fear about this idea is that House Democrats will join with the RINO establishment to keep the Weeper Speaker in power.

Actually, that reality may end up being why conservative Republicans choose not to implement Ryun's strategy. I'm not sure if that strategy has been tried on a national level but something very similar to it happened at the state level in Texas after the 2008 elections.

Up until that time, Rep. Tom Craddick (R-Midland) had been the Speaker. Then, in January of 2009, he was voted out and replaced by Joe Straus (R- San Antonio), a RINO / social liberal - despite getting a huge majority of Republican votes. How'd that happen? Democrats in the Texas House decided it was better to have a RINO in charge than a Speaker who was more conservative. Straus was elected by lobbying for - and getting - all of the Democrats to vote for him.

Via Tea Party 911:

Joe Straus, a Republican with poor conservative credentials, connived with 65 Democrats and 11 “moderate” Republicans to take over the speaker of the house for the 81st session in 2009, a betrayal of the other Republican members and the voters who elected them.  It is a well know story in political circles how Democrats were allegedly rewarded for their votes with prominent committee positions.  As a result, the Democrats were able to substantially block the conservative Republican agenda in the 81st legislature in Texas.

In short, even if 16 Republican Congressmen withhold their votes, they will only guarantee that Boehner doesn't get 218 Republican votes. If that scenario unfolded, Boehner could retain the Speakership by getting 217 Republican votes and just one Democrat vote. Why? Perhaps Democrats would prefer Boehner to someone like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), whom Ryun suggests.

Say 30 Republicans abstain; it would only take 15 Democrats (likely blue dogs) to guarantee Boehner's job. What's more is that under such a scenario, Boehner would be even more beholden to the liberal agenda and would actually update his list of Republican House members who would deserve retribution for not towing the line.

That would be Obama-esque.