TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL: TEA PARTY CANDIDATE SOARING

Unless you live in Texas, the name Debra Medina may not be familiar. However, she is one of three Republican candidates participating in the primary this March. The other two are incumbent Rick Perry and sitting U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Medina is not a career politician and has been making surprisingly steady progress. Helping her greatly was winning legal challenges that allowed her to participate in the debates.

On a side note, Hutchison was the loser in both debates in my view. In particular, her stance on abortion was pathetically explained and thanks to tough questions, she got penned in on the abortion issue and had to admit she supports Roe v. Wade, although she continued to deny that while admitting it at the same time.

For a while, Medina was not taken seriously but she has been ginning up quite a bit of support, mainly by being accessible to practically every type of media outlet. Now, seemingly out of nowhere, she may soon overtake Kay Bailey Hutchison according to the Politico:

Tea party-backed candidate Debra Medina is closing on Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas’s Republican gubernatorial primary, increasing the odds the race led by Gov. Rick Perry will be thrown into a runoff.

According to a survey out Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, Medina, a nurse who’s now a businesswoman, had the support of 24 percent of likely Republican primary voters, trailing the three-term senator by only 4 percentage points. Perry, who leads Hutchison by double-digits in several polls, got 39 percent in the latest survey.

It was only a few short days ago that Medina had 16% of the vote with Hutchison at 33% so this is a massive swing. Having watched both debates, I can say I'm not surprised by Hutchison's drop.

Two things of note here. First, there is much to be excited about with Medina. She's a strict constitutionalist and a big supporter of state's rights. She doesn't believe a concealed handgun permit should be required to carry a concealed handgun. She thinks that the property tax should be abolished and she's a strong pro-life candidate. However, the Ron Paul crowd is strongly behind her and that is when my antenna goes up. She also seemed to waffle on the issue of gay marriage in a way not all that dissimilar from the way Hutchison waffled on abortion in debate #2. It struck me as inconsistent that Medina would come out as a strong pro-life advocate while also saying that she believes marriage is a sacrament between a man and a woman without saying that should be the law. She seemed to defer to what voters wanted without taking the next step.

The second aspect to Medina that should be watched is the heavy support she gets from the Pauliens. If Ron Paul gave a speech with the first half being about domestic policy, to include immigration, the Federal Reserve, and the dangers of big government, clear thinking conservatives would stand and cheer. If the second half of the speech was about foreign policy and why the Islamists hate the west, those same clear thinking conservatives would likely roll their eyes and walk out.

It's funny that the "The Creature from Jekyll Island" is one of the books at the top of the Pauliens' reading list because Ron Paul is like Jekyll and Hyde.

Ironically enough, Sarah Palin, the current leader and champion of the Tea Party movement is supporting Ron Paul's son Rand in senatorial bid in Kentucky. As many are learning, an ACORN doesn't fall far from the tree (Obama quote). Rand is not all that dissimilar from his dad. It might be sending a bit of a conflicting message for Palin to be stumping for Rick Perry in Texas and Rand Paul in Kentucky while the Pauliens in Texas overwhelmingly support Medina. Now that the race is getting much closer, Palin could be in stumping for the candidate the Tea Party movement opposes, as she will be doing in Arizona, stumping for McCain when J.D. Hayworth is the Tea Party favorite.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Tea Party movement is HUGELY unpredictable and growing exponentially almost by the day. I believe Palin is making a BIG mistake by jumping into these Republican dog fights this early. If Medina and Hayworth continue to garner Tea Party support, making it a race in Texas and Arizona respectively, Palin could find herself in a pickle.

An example of where Palin is doing the right thing with the Tea Party movement is in Minnesota, where she is supporting Michele Bachmann. She's on safe ground there. In my view, her endorsements of Republican candidates in the primary season came far too soon and it may just come back and bite her.

More at Politico

YET ANOTHER REASON FOR PALIN NOT TO SUPPORT MCCAIN

While throwing red meat to conservatives in the form of a keynote speech at the Tea Party convention, Sarah Palin is also preparing to stump for John McCain against J.D. Hayworth in the run-up to the August 24th primary. Hayworth is undoubtedly the preferred candidate among the Tea Party movement, an awkward position for Palin to be in but it's of her own making.

It could be getting even more awkward for the former Alaska Governor in light of John McCain's daughter, Meghan going after the Tea Parties while seeming to imply that her book - due out on August 3rd - is not going to be kind to Palin. I expect the book will be more favorable to her dad than to Palin. One of those indicators is her appearance on ABC's The View.

While being very well received by the table of liberal ladies, Meghan laughed when asked by Barbara Walters what her father would think of Sarah Palin's behavior at the Tea Party convention and told Walters she'd have to wait until her book is released.

Then later in the exchange, daughter McCain basically called Tom Tancredo, who spoke at the convention, a racist. She says that the former congressman's words are indicative of why the younger demographic is "turned off" by the tea party movement. Tancredo was asked to speak at the convention for a reason. His views are aligned with those of the Tea Partiers. By Meghan going after Tancredo, she's also going after the Tea Party movement by extension; those who watched Tancredo did applaud him.

Meghan McCain had access to the campaign in 2008 that she otherwise wouldn't have had if not the daughter of the Arizona senator. She very well could exploit that access to damage a person in Palin who is going to attempt to help Meghan's dad defeat the Tea Party candidate.

VIDEO: WHAT SARAH PALIN SHOULD HAVE SAID

First off, I am not an apologist for Sarah Palin. I have been much more critical and skeptical of her as of late. Until recently, she has been at the top of my short list for 2012. She's no longer there and is increasingly losing stock with me. The biggest burr under my saddle has been her decision to stump for progressive John McCain in the Arizona primary against J.D. Hayworth. In so doing, she has pitted herself against conservatives in that state as well as Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Maricopa county, who is on record as saying he will support Hayworth.

Arpaio and McCain aren't the best of friends and the latter's views on immigration no doubt serve as quite the wedge in that relationship.

I've already written about Palin and McCain in the Arizona primary so I won't go into it here.

With that out of the way.... While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Palin told Chris Wallace that Obama is telling his political opponents - to include the Tea Party movement - to "sit down and shut up". Wallace responded by challenging Palin to point to an example of when he said that.

Via Politico

Pressed by host Chris Wallace to explain where the president is telling Americans to sit down and shut up, Palin said: "Just kind of his general persona, I think, that he has when he's up there at, I'll call it a lectern.

Levying that kind of charge and then not backing it up with specifics made Palin look foolish in my view. That doesn't mean she wasn't right.

She SHOULD have pointed to this....