Romney losing to Santorum..... in Michigan?

I don't want to make too much of this but if Santorum beats Romney in Michigan, it may be the equivalent of landing an upper cut on an opponent with wobbly knees. It would be devastating. However, according to the Public Policy Poll (PPP), not only is Santorum ahead of Romney in the latter's formerly home state but he's blowing him away.

Via PPP:

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich.  Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Yeah, that's a 15% lead for Santorum in Michigan. The vast majority of Gingrich's support would likely go to the former Pennsylvania Senator as well if the former Speaker dropped out.

A couple of random thoughts on this.

1.) As a Catholic, Santorum could very well be capitalizing on Obama's contraceptive mandate. It's a rule the administration issued that targets Catholicism more than any other religion since it goes completely against the Church's teachings. Though they're not supposed to endorse any political candidate, the Catholic Church might just be mad enough to do it with Santorum. Obama's Community Organizing tactics work when the CO's are underdogs. In the fight between Obama and the Catholic Church, the CO's are actually the bullies and the Church is the underdog. This, as much as anything, could be giving Santorum the momentum he's got.

 2.) If Romney loses Michigan, it might be time for the establishment to throw up its hands and work for a brokered convention instead of coalescing behind any presumptive nominee other than Romney. Along those lines, if Romney represents the establishment and Santorum represents the Tea Party, how clear would that line of distinction be between Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin?

Via The Hill:

Santorum’s contraception boom — “We’re all Catholics now,” said Mike Huckabee — won’t hold up. Because we’re not. This race could well go to a brokered convention. If Jeb Bush is proposed, so Sarah Palin should be minutes later. She is now and always has been the singular Jacksonian voice in the original Tea Party phenomenon; the only one who can bring it to the mainstream. Her absence from the primary race has left a vacuum and no substitute has been found. Every other possible or potential leadership hopeful has risen and receded in this long Republican primary season.

But as The Hill’s Josh Lederman reports from the CPAC conference, the former Alaska governor received far and away the most spirited and enthusiastic reception at the convention of about 10,000 conservative activists. She drew the audience to its feet more than a dozen times during her keynote address on Saturday.

“The cheers for Palin were so loud that they drowned out her remarks again and again,” he writes. “Conference organizers had to set up three overflow rooms to accommodate the throngs of supporters eager to hear her words.”

Make no mistake. The second it's shown that Romney will not be the nominee, the establishment will fight, tooth and nail, to make sure neither Santorum nor Gingrich gets the nod and it certainly doesn't want Ron Paul (the one thing I agree with the establishment on). These are not just speculative rumors; they're practically self-evident truths.

They're only option at that point is to work toward a Brokered Convention. Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels are warming up in the bullpen right...this...very...second.

h/t Hot Air