Here, you are urged and encouraged to run your mouths about something important.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Can you say Brokered Convention?

Yes, a brokered convention is a long shot but three years ago, a primary season like the one we're seeing now would have been considered a long shot as well. Consider the fact that the only two Republicans who qualified to be on the ballot in Virginia are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. It was learned earlier this week that Santorum, Bachmann, and Huntsman all failed to get the 10,000 signatures necessary by the deadline. Then, yesterday it was learned that Gingrich and Perry failed as well.

As Hot Air points out, it's not even legal for candidates to launch write-in campaigns in the Virginia primaries. That means simply that Romney and Paul will be the only option for Republican voters in that state.

This news comes AFTER National Review's Brian Buldoc laid out the scenario necessary for a brokered convention. That scenario involves Romney, Gingrich, and Paul all getting so many delegates that none has enough to grab the nomination. If that happens, we'd be looking at a convention where someone like Palin, DeMint, or anyone for that matter, could jump in.

Via NRO:
Political junkies, take heart: A brokered convention is possible, if improbable. Using Rhodes Cook’s delegate count, I’ve made a spreadsheet that tabulates the results of different primary outcomes. If you use some imagination — but not too much — you can allocate the delegates in such a way that no candidate wins on the first ballot.

To secure the nomination, a candidate must get “a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention,” according to GOP rules. Cook predicts there will be a total of 2,282 delegates*, so a candidate needs 1,142 votes to win. Here’s a not-impossible outcome: Mitt Romney wins 1,131 delegates, Newt Gingrich gets 954, and Ron Paul wins 181.
What's been the biggest beef of the Tea Party in this campaign? The answer is that none of the candidates in the field meet the standard.

One way for the Tea Party to find its way back into relevance might involve adopting a new strategy, one that starts with the premise that uses Ron Paul mania to its advantage. If the goal of the Tea Party becomes ensuring that NO Republican on the ballot gets the nomination, it is much closer to getting its preferred candidate nominated.

Take Virginia, for example. If Romney is way ahead by the time that primary rolls around on March 6th, Gingrich supporters might decide to pull the lever for Paul, who has already generated much more support than he did in 2008. He will stay in the race until the bitter end. If Gingrich an Paul can siphon enough votes away from Romney while not garnering enough for the nomination, we could be looking at an extremely historic nomination process.

Yes, it's a very long shot indeed, as Buldoc says but all that's necessary is for three candidates to split enough votes amongst themselves.

The odds of such a thing happening actually go up if an entity like the Tea Party actually works toward it.

Click HERE for the detailed scenario Buldoc lays out.

Oh yeah, and keep hope alive.

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